London Playbook PM: Tory hopefuls fight for survival

Good afternoon. This is Andrew McDonald from committee corridor in parliament, hunched over a laptop while Tory MPs quiz the leadership contenders.
— It’s the last chance for Conservative contenders to charm their electorate as they face an MP hustings.
— Tom Tugendhat launched his leadership campaign… again.
— Benjamin Netanyahu hit back after Labour suspended some arms exports.
— At least 12 people are dead after a boat carrying asylum seekers capsized in the English Channel.
— A vote on the end of universal winter fuel allowance is expected next Tuesday.
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LAST GASP PERSUASIONS: Tory MPs are most of the way through a private grilling of the people hoping to lead their fightback after a crushing election defeat. The hustings, in a parliamentary committee room, is one of the last moments the hopefuls have to persuade colleagues before tomorrow’s first-round ballot — so there’s everything to play for.
How’s it been playing out: Robert Jenrick was up first to face the MPs, getting the usual table-banging treatment as he walked in. He had 20-25 minutes or so in front of MPs. Playbook PM hears that, among other things, Jenrick hit out at the “cack-handed, careless and un-conservative” mini-budget from Liz Truss when he was grilled on the economy. She’ll love that.
Next up … was Kemi Badenoch, who got some table-banging and stamping of feet as she entered the committee room around 4.30. The hustings were “fine” she told waiting hacks after, before Tom Tugendhat (more on him in a bit) faced a grilling he later helpfully described as “brilliant.” Mel Stride’s up as Playbook PM lands in your inbox, then it’s Priti Patel and James Cleverly. Lots were drawn over the order.
Some numberwang: The hour or so left in the committee room is fairly important for contenders who know they still have ground to make up among MPs before tomorrow’s vote. One contender will be knocked out. Only 54 MPs have declared their backing for a candidate, less than half of the rump of Tory MPs left by July’s demolition.
Out in front: Jenrick and Badenoch (in that order) have the most declared MP supporters so far, and are expecting to sail through tomorrow. As per the Spectator’s list, the other four contenders are all still in single figures for declared supporters — and their whipping operations will be working hard in the morning and afternoon tomorrow to shore up support. MPs are expecting a wide-open contest.
One more chance at persuasion: After the MP hustings, the candidates all troop over to CCHQ for drinks organized by the Conservative Women’s Organization.
Predictably … an incredibly minor scuffle has broken out between the camps. A rival leadership contender’s team tells Playbook PM that all the campaign teams are taking merch to the evening’s drinks — but that only Badenoch’s team are using the occasion to try and flog theirs. Badenoch’s team insist it’s normal for candidates to bring their wares, put it on a stall and then direct people who want it to their website. The joys of opposition.
EARLIER IN THE DAY: Tom Tugendhat pitched himself as the Mr Serious the Tories need, in his formal leadership launch.
Standing room only: In the events space of the Royal Horseguards hotel in Westminster supporters, activists and hacks vastly outnumbered the chairs put out for Tugendhat’s speech.
That’s because: Only about 70 or so seats were laid out despite space in the room for many more — helpfully creating a standing-room only vibe. So far, so clever from Team Tom. His main supporters from the Tory right, including Jake Berry and Nick Timothy, watched on from the side alongside many more Tory One Nation worthies.
Waiting for Tommo: Royalty free-rock-music blared out into the room for an eternity before a speaker finally emerged to address the room a full 15 minutes late. Harriet Cross, the new Scottish Tory MP, wandered on and described Tugendhat as “heir to Disraeli, Macmillan and also Thatcher.” No pressure.
And then it was TT time … or was it? A handful of confused looking activists waved Tugendhat-branded foam fingers — yep, really — as their man initially didn’t appear upon introduction for a good 30 seconds or so. “Whoever came up with the foam fingers is fired,” Tugendhat later joked.
The same should absolutely be true for: Whoever designed the unsettling sweets given out with Tugendhat’s face on them. The Spectator’s James Heale snapped a pic of them.
More seriously: Tugendhat, speaking again from a serious-vibes Union Jack-flanked lectern rather than the relaxed and mobile style favored by other candidates, apologized and admitted that the public stopped taking his party seriously — and promised to lead a “Conservative revolution” as a man who can put the “serious” in “serious leadership.” He mentioned the word “serious” in his speech 11 times by Playbook PM’s count.
Why so serious? Bits of his speech, particularly in the first half, sounded positively like another leader who’s promised to bring politics back to serious ground. Spot the difference: “It’s about putting the government back at the service of the people,” — Tom Tugendhat, September 3 … “This garden, and this building, are now back in your service,” — Keir Starmer, August 27 in the Rose Garden.
But then in the second half … Tugendhat laid out his arguments for why he’s still, like, a proper Conservative — and not the Tory wet his opponents and some supporters think he is. As he did in his non-launch speech last week, Tugendhat devoted a load of focus to migration and his hopes for a “rethink” of the U.K. economy to make it less dependent on outside hires. He reiterated his pledge for a cap on migration, and to reform, or leave if necessary, the ECHR. There was lots of Starmer-bashing too, despite sounding a bit like him earlier.
No yellow cards here: Despite some provocation from the seven journos — mostly from broadcasters and newspapers on the right — given questions at the end, Tugendhat declined the opportunity to criticize any of his colleagues, describing them all as “friends and good Conservatives.” Tomorrow will show if that approach is paying off.
FROM THE NEWS … TO THE BACKLASH: Keir Starmer is continuing to face a pretty fierce backlash from some quarters to his government’s move to limit arms exports to Israel. 
Bibi bashes in: Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu hit out at what he called a “shameful” decision to suspend some arms sales — about 30 out of 350 export licenses — to Israel. In his office’s firmly-worded statement this morning, Netanyahu said Britain’s “shameful decision will not change Israel’s determination to defeat Hamas … Instead of standing with Israel, a fellow democracy defending itself against barbarism, Britain’s misguided decision will only embolden Hamas.”
Also piling in today: Boris Johnson said it amounted to “abandoning Israel” … Tory shadow minister Helen Whateley reckoned Labour were “giving into pressure from its backbenchers” … and Tom Tugendhat, speaking at his leadership launch, said it was a “remarkable decision” which hurts Israel’s right to defend itself. 
But on the other hand: The independent alliance of MPs elected on pro-Gaza platforms in July ain’t happy either. They said they are continuing to call for a total arms embargo — and that it was “beyond shameful” that it took so long.
Defending itself: No. 10 insisted the U.K. remains a “staunch ally” of Israel at the lobby briefing this morning — while Defense Secretary John Healey claimed on the Today program this morning that the suspension “won’t have a material impact” on Israel’s security.
Now watch out for: How the U.S. responds.
Spotted earlier: The Israeli ambassador attending a lunch in one of the Commons dining rooms.
TWELVE DIE IN THE CHANNEL: At least 12 people are dead after a boat carrying asylum seekers capsized in the English Channel earlier. The BBC is running a blog with the latest. Home Secretary Yvette Cooper paid tribute to the French coastguard for their response to the “deeply tragic incident” and said she is being kept updated by her counterpart Gérald Darmanin.
TROUBLE TO COME: There will be a vote on the government’s plans to scrap the universal winter fuel allowance on Tuesday next week, multiple journalists and Playbook’s Dan Bloom hear.
OUT OF JAIL: Some serious sexual offenders and other violent criminals will be released under Labour’s prisoner early release scheme, Channel 4 News reports, despite assurances serious crimes would be excluded from the policy. The scheme, which reduces the proportion of certain custodial sentences served in prison from 50 percent to 40 percent, is due to commence next week with the broadcaster hearing cases of prisoners serving consecutive sentences where the end date takes into account a sentence for a less serious offense. Full deets on their program tonight from 7 p.m.
FIRST OF MANY: The government is set to slash the nature-friendly farming budget at Defra, Helena Horton at the Guardian reports — in what appears to be one of the first examples of cuts to departments as ordered by Rachel Reeves.
Talking of cuts: The Scottish government announced £500 million in cuts to its budget this afternoon, with Scottish Finance Secretary Shona Robison turning the blame firmly on the Labour government’s own cuts. But on the other hand … a report from the independent Scottish Fiscal Commission last week said that much of the pressure comes from Scottish government decisions like freezing council tax last year.
GB ENERGY DECISION … MADE? The BBC is reporting that GB Energy will be located in Aberdeen — which has long been the most obvious location for the new energy company. A DESNZ spokesperson said they wouldn’t comment on speculation.
INSIDE BASEBALL MOVES: Labour general secretary David Evans is stepping down at party conference later this month, the Times’ Patrick Maguire reports. Two Labour officials tell my colleague Dan Bloom that it’s a straight race between John Lehal and Hollie Ridley, both senior Labour figures in the party backroom. Maguire hears the same.
MAKE UP YOUR OWN CAT PUNS, I CBA: The official spokesperson of the prime minister of the United Kingdom and Northern Ireland told hacks this morning that … “there won’t be a running commentary on feline movements” after Starmer confirmed a new Siberian kitten is joining the family. Normal country.
IDS SMASH: The Labour government is “as bad as the last government” when it comes to tackling Chinese forced-labor, Tory grandee Iain Duncan Smith tells my colleague Graham Lanktree. It comes as Graham reports Britain is ducking a fight with Beijing over its state-subsidized electric vehicle (EV) exports.
No EV solution: Slave labor in Chinese automakers’ battery supply chains is another way “they get their costs down,” Duncan Smith said.
UKRAINE UPDATE: At least 47 people have been killed in Poltava, a central Ukrainian city, after a Russian missile attack. More than 200 people have been injured. It’s one of the deadliest attacks on Ukraine since Russia’s full scale invasion in 2022. More here from POLITICO.
Meanwhile in Washington: Officials said America is close to an agreement giving Ukraine long range cruise missiles that could reach deep into Russia. Reuters has more.
IN THE RED SEA: Efforts are underway to prevent a tanker targeted by Houthi rebels from spilling around one million barrels of oil into the sea as private companies under the protection of EU military forces try to salvage the vessel. The BBC has a writeup.
IN MONGOLIA: A government spokesperson told my colleague Ketrin Jochecová the reason Mongolia failed to execute an International Criminal Court arrest warrant against Russian President Vladimir Putin was because of its energy dependency on Moscow.
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LEADING THE NEWS BULLETINS: Channel 5 News (5 p.m.) focuses on the English Channel tragedy … BBC News at Six leads on five children being arrested on suspicion of murder after an 80-year-old man died in Leicestershire … Channel 4 News (7 p.m.) focuses on its investigation into Labour’s prisoner early release scheme.
Tom Swarbrick at Drive (LBC, until 6 p.m.): Abraham Accords Peace Institute Executive Director Aryeh Lightstone (5.05 p.m.).
Drive with John Pienaar (Times Radio, until 7 p.m.): Former U.S. Middle East senior adviser Laura Blumenfeld … the New Statesman’s Rachel Cunliffe and commentator Tim Montgomerie (from 6 p.m.).
BBC PM (Radio 4, 5 p.m.): Former Tory MP Alan Duncan … George Osborne’s former Chief of Staff Rupert Harrison.
News Hour (Sky News, 5 p.m.): Standing Together National Co-Director Alon-Lee Green (5.30 p.m.) … retired London Fire Brigade Commander Steve Dudeney (5.45 p.m.).
Tonight With Andrew Marr (LBC, 6 p.m.): Tory peers Ken Clarke and Daniel Finkelstein … former U.K. Ambassador to Iran Rob Macaire.
Farage (GB News, 7 p.m.): Former Labour MP Lloyd Russell-Moyle … former Tory MP John Redwood.
Politics Hub with Sophy Ridge (Sky News, 7 p.m.): Lib Dem Leader Ed Davey … Tory peer Sayeeda Warsi … Labour peer Ayesha Hazarika.
Cross Question with Simon Marks (LBC, 8 p.m.): Lib Dem MP Tim Farron … campaigner Gina Miller … the Mail on Sunday’s Dan Hodges.
Jacob Rees-Mogg’s State of the Nation (GB News, 8 p.m.): ConHome’s Henry Hill.
TWEETING TOMORROW’S PAPERS TONIGHT: Neil Henderson.
REVIEWING THE PAPERS TONIGHT: Times Radio (10.30 p.m.): The Spectator’s James Heale and PoliticsHome’s Nadine Batchelor-Hunt … Sky News (10.30 p.m. and 11.30 p.m.): The Observer’s Sonia Sodha and LBC’s Ali Miraj.
GREEN COCKTAILS: Nature 2030 and Ecotricity are hosting the 2024 Political Purpose Awards in the Commons’ Churchill Room.
GRENFELL: The long-awaited final report from the Grenfell disaster’s phase two will be published.
TORY LEADERSHIP RACE: The first ballot among MPs for the Tory leadership will take place in the afternoon.
COMMONS: PMQs, Budget Responsibility Bill.
LORDS: High speed rail debate.
PACKED LUNCH OR PALACE LUNCH: Subject to change, here are the lunch menus on the estate tomorrow: Bellamy’s: Grilled beef burger with leek and cheese rarebit in a soft white bap; vegan ‘meatball’ in a ravine sauce with fruit quinoa; satay chicken breast and vegetable stir fry with rice and toasted peanuts … The Debate: Chinese style roast belly of pork bap with Asian chopped salad; smoked haddock fish cake with sweet potato wedges and chunky tartare sauce; miso sesame aubergine and smoky tofu with steamed rice, spring onions and maple soya sauce … Terrace Cafeteria: Grilled lamb kofta on flat bread with pickled red cabbage and coriander relish yoghurt; cod salmon and haddock fish pie; cheese potato and onion pats with rocket and apple salad.
COMING ATTRACTION: The Usual Channels — a new book on the political whipping by journo, ace John Bercow biographer and POLITICO alum Sebastian Whale — is out on October 31. Pre-order here.
Spotted: Former don of the Tory 1922 committee Graham Brady wearing a visitor pass in parliament — meaning he has to be escorted at all times or face punishment from the parliamentary guards. His Lords pass must have not come through yet.
New gig: UK in a Changing Europe’s former comms chief Anthony Broxton started in parliament working for new Labour MP for St Helens North David Baines. Don’t worry though, the Tides of History page he runs on X will continue.
New gig II: Former Welsh Secretary David TC Davies has a new job working for Welsh MS Laura Anne Jones — who is currently being investigated by the police over her expenses. More from the BBC here.
New hearing material: Conservative Home and Tees Valley Mayor Ben Houchen have launched a podcast, the BluePrint. Deets here.
ON THIS DAY IN POLITICS: Qatar declared independence from Great Britain on this day in 1971.
WRITING PLAYBOOK TOMORROW MORNING: Sam Blewett.
THANKS TO: My editor Matt Honeycombe-Foster, reporter Noah Keate and the POLITICO production team for making it look nice.
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